In the 1940s, Hungarian mathematician John van Neumann published a groundbreaking tome on game-theory. Chief among his theories is the zero-sum-game, which posits that two players in a game work against their opponent, so that one’s loss is another’s gain. After totaling all points, the net sum of wins and losses must equal zero. Game theory logically applies to economic and political calculations.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggression toward Ukraine fits comfortably into van Neumann’s theory. Fearing weakened hegemony over former Soviet states due to burgeoning democracies like Ukraine, Putin perceives real-time threats to his autocratic rule. If the West “wins” through democratic advances in the East, in the zero-sum-game — and ostensibly in Putin’s psyche — Russia necessarily loses. No perfect diplomatic strategy exists to counter Putin’s macro-aggressions. Nor can a nation as historically unique as the United States convince Putin that his zero-sum-game analysis is flawed. But one must understand Putin’s fears — whether reasonable or not — in order to combat his actions appropriately.
The United States need not risk the lives of thousands of deployed soldiers on Ukrainian borders if it can alleviate Putin’s concerns that one nation’s success necessitates another’s failure. This will require delicate concessions while maintaining a firm commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty. The United States needs to “get in the game,” so to speak, and confront Putin’s arrogance with wisdom and prudence. Ignoring the consequences of the zero-sum-game Putin plays may risk another war in Europe with devastating results.
